TSPWealth Update 1/21/23

A New Bull Market?

It appears a new bull market has begun. Noteworthy activity took place this past week in the stock market.  The Zweig A/D Ratio indicator triggered based on strong performance on New York Stock Exchange advancing/declining issues data.  Historically this indicator has often triggered near the beginning of cyclical bull markets.  Dr. Zweig published extensively on analysis of this indicator going back to the 1960s and it has an impeccable record.  Refer to chart below for the recent data since 2005.  Typically, these bull markets last on the order of 2 years or so.  At this time, it is useful to recall an old Wall Street saying; “Bull markets begin in gloom and end in glory” as there is plenty of gloom to go around.  At this time the TSPWealth system is up 5.5% in 2023 based on strong performance in the I-Fund.  Going forward we expect the S-Fund and I-Fund to lead the market and the system will make adjustments as the subtle tides shift. 

You may also note a clustering of 90% Up-Volume days denoted by the yellow dots on the chart above over the past few months. Again this is another good omen for the market environment.